Oddly Enough

Oddsmaker William Hill U.S. sent me its updated Super Bowl XLVIII odds on Wednesday. Here they are: 

49ERS 6-1

BRONCOS 6-1

PATRIOTS 6-1

SEAHAWKS 7-1

PACKERS 10-1

TEXANS 15-1

SAINTS 15-1

RAVENS 16-1

STEELERS 18-1

FALCONS 18-1

GIANTS 18-1

REDSKINS 27-1

COLTS 30-1

COWBOYS 30-1

BEARS 30-1

BENGALS 33-1

VIKINGS 33-1

EAGLES 35-1

CHIEFS 40-1

CHARGERS 40-1

PANTHERS 45-1

LIONS 45-1

RAMS 50-1

DOLPHINS 50-1

JETS 50-1

BUCCANEERS 55-1

BROWNS 60-1

CARDS 80-1

BILLS 80-1

TITANS 100-1

RAIDERS 100-1

JAGUARS 150-1

A few brief notes: 

• The Chiefs were moved to 40-1 on Monday when William Hill’s oddsmaking experts believed Kansas City was likely to acquire Alex Smith. Two days later, news broke that Smith was indeed headed to K.C. 
• The perceived disparity between the top and bottom of the AFC is striking. The Pats and Broncos are each 6-1 Super Bowl favorites, but one quarter of the AFC’s 16 teams (Buffalo, Oakland, Tennessee, Jacksonville) are among the five teams with the longest NFL title odds at William Hill. 

A Southeastern Conference team has won the last seven BCS titles, and Alabama enters next season as a strong candidate to contend for its third consecutive national championship. 

With Alabama a perennial power, and with the SEC proven (and perceived) as college football’s strongest league, oddsmaker William Hill U.S. has made the conference a 1/2 shot to win the 2014 national title.

Here’s the prop bet:   

Will an SEC team win the 2013-14 BCS championship?

Yes: -200

No: +175

In short, the prop suggests an SEC team has a 2-in-3 shot in winning the 2014 BCS title. (Here’s a calculator from SBR Forum that’s useful for understanding the math behind various odds.)

As of Feb. 11, eight teams had national-title odds of lower than 20-1 at William Hill. 

Six were SEC teams, led by Alabama:

ALABAMA 3 / 1

TEXAS A&M 10 / 1

LSU 12 / 1

FLORIDA 15 / 1

GEORGIA 15 / 1

SOUTH CAROLINA 18 / 1

Interestingly enough, though, the co-second betting choices were non-SEC teams: 

OHIO STATE 7 / 1

OREGON 7 / 1

In addition to the Buckeyes and Ducks, the “No” side of the SEC prop would include these well-regarded programs:

STANFORD 20 / 1

CLEMSON 25 / 1

FLORIDA STATE 25 / 1

LOUISVILLE 25 / 1

TEXAS 30 / 1

NOTRE DAME 30 / 1

MICHIGAN 30 / 1

OKLAHOMA STATE 30 / 1

OKLAHOMA 35 / 1

MIAMI (FLA.) 45 / 1

UCLA 45 / 1

NEBRASKA 50 / 1

USC 50 / 1

WISCONSIN 50 / 1

TCU 60 / 1

MICHIGAN STATE 60 / 1

I’m not inclined to like the “Yes” side of the prop. It’s not because I don’t greatly respect the SEC. Instead, I’d much rather take my chances with one — or even a couple — of the individual SEC teams than taking 1-2 on the whole bunch. To me, it makes more sense to put, say, 10 widgets on Alabama (3-1) and 10 widgets on Georgia (15-1) than 20 on the entire SEC at 1-2. 

On the other hand, the “Yes” is slightly appealing if you are convinced the SEC is vulnerable but you aren’t sure which teams to back on the future book. That said, you have to ask yourself — is 7-4 the sort of return you’re looking when you’re taking a pretty contrarian stance? There may be better ways to leverage your opinion. 

Here is the fifth of a series of analyses of the best players available at each major position group in NFL free agency:  

SPECIALISTS

Placekickers: Bironas best of a deep group

It’s a tough time to be an experienced NFL kicker. Let’s count the ways: 

• In 2012, the Ravens (Justin Tucker), Vikings (Blair Walsh) and Rams (Greg Zuerlein) went young at placekicker, and it paid off. Those three teams successfully filled a key position with a capable — and low-cost — performer.
• The success of Tucker, Walsh and Zuerlein could embolden other teams to try a rookie kicker. Per NFLDraftScout.com, three kickers — Florida State’s Dustin Hopkins, Florida’s Caleb Sturgis and Nebraska’s Brett Maher — are draftable prospects. 
• Teams preferring to look for a veteran placekicker have numerous options, which reduces the leverage for every experienced kicker on the market. 
  
• Making matters worse, the 2013 salary cap isn’t expected to increase much at all. 
• Finally, the projected franchise-tag tender for specialists is relatively low ($2.928 million, per Yahoo! Sports), making it a viable option for teams that don’t want to bother with signing a kicker to an extension but do want special-teams security.

The Titans’ Rob Bironas heads the free-agent PK list. Strong-legged and consistent, Bironas could garner a multi-year deal even at age 35 — which really isn’t that old for this position.

Seahawks PK Steven Hauschka could also get a multi-year deal. He’s really picked up his play in the last two seasons, and he is only 27. 

It will be interesting to see where Browns PK Phil Dawson lands. After two straight seasons of receiving the franchise tag, Dawson finally gets to test the market. He was in top form in 2012, connecting on 29-of-31 field goals, including all seven attempts from 50 yards and out. The Browns would be wise to work to bring him back; kicking at Cleveland Browns Stadium can be tricky, and scoring-challenged Cleveland needs consistency at this position. 

The Bengals have to decide whether to re-sign Josh Brown or Mike Nugent. Both are among the 32 best kickers in the league, and I’d expect both to be on rosters next season. Nugent is talented, but his durability is a concern. The same can be said for the Dolphins’ Nate Kaeding, who can hold down a job for the next several seasons if he can just stay on the field. 

Jason Hanson (Lions), Shayne Graham (Texans), Lawrence Tynes (Giants) and Nick Novak (Chargers) are other fine short-term PK solutions. 

49ers PK David Akers is among the veterans who could be released. He’s due $3 million in 2013, per Rotoworld.com. He’s an interesting evaluation — his 2011 form was outstanding, but he really struggled a season ago, and he will be 39 in December. 

Punters: Lechler, Colquitt tops 

We’ll give Raiders P Shane Lechler the nod as the top free agent at this position, but Dustin Colquitt (Chiefs) and Kevin Huber (Bengals)could appeal more to teams looking for younger veterans. Lechler will be 37 in July, and he’s punted more than 1,000 times in a brilliant NFL career. Colquitt has had an impressive run of his own, too, while Huber is an up-and-comer. 

Rounding out the top five are Donnie Jones (Texans) and Pat McAfee (Colts). 

Reggie Hodges (Browns) and Sav Rocca (Redskins) are also capable of holding down roster spots. 

According to NFLDraftScout.com, LSU’s Brad Wing and Oklahoma’s Quinn Sharp both have draftable grades. 

Below are my rankings of the free-agent specialists (punters + kickers). Contract data is from Rotoworld.com, which does a great job tracking such numbers. Also, kicking data is from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus: 

• The projected franchise-tag number is $5.968 million, per Yahoo! Sports. 
• Four tight ends could go in the first two rounds of the 2013 per NFLDraftScout.com (Stanford’s Zach Ertz, Notre Dame’s Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati’s Travis Kelce, Rice’s Vance McDonald).

Free agency analysis

Yes, he turns 37 next week. And yes, he may well retire. Nevertheless, Tony Gonzalez has to remain atop the list of free-agent tight ends until he files the paperwork ending his first-ballot Hall of Fame career. If he departs, the Falcons will have a tremendous void to fill in their passing game.

Beyond Gonzalez, four UFAs stand out: Jared Cook (Titans), Martellus Bennett (Giants), Dustin Keller (Jets) and Fred Davis (Redskins). Frankly, there isn’t a lot separating these four players. Cook gets the nod in my rankings on age and upside, but he has never quite put it all together. Bennett could just as easily be second. Keller has the best résumé of the group but played just eight games in 2012. Davis has a good deal of talent but comes off an Achilles injury. 

Brandon Myers (Raiders), Delanie Walker (49ers) and Anthony Fasano (Dolphins) are the next-best options beyond the top five. 

Dennis Pitta (Ravens) is the top restricted free agent at the position, but if he’s tendered at anything beyond his draft-pick level (Round Four), he’s very likely to stay put. 

One RFA situation to watch is how the Jets tender Jeff Cumberland. If they low-tender him, it’s possible he could draw a little interest. A former undrafted free agent, Cumberland could be signed away for no draft pick compensation if the Jets give him the lowest one-year RFA offer. 

Trade / release potential 

There figure to be some cuts at this position. Keep an eye on the NFC North. Bears TE Kellen Davis is a logical candidate to be released. So too is Vikings TE John Carlson. Lions TE Tony Scheffler is another interesting proposition; he’s getting up in age, and the Lions have some cap issues. That said, I think he’s a longer shot to be released than the first two TEs mentioned. 

The Packers have an interesting decision on Jermichael Finley, who has a $3.5 million roster bonus in March, per Rotoworld.com figures. Overall, Finley is reportedly slated to make around $8 million in 2013, and that’s a good deal of money for a player who can be very frustrating. That said, Finley would vault to the top of the list of tight ends available behind Gonzalez if he were released. Finley will be just 26 at the beginning of next season, and he has a good deal of potential. 

Below are my tight end free-agent rankings (UFA + RFA), as well as a list of players who could be cut or traded. (All salary figures are from Rotoworld.com, an invaluable resource for such financial information.)

The list:

Here is the third of a series of analyses of the best players available at each major position group in NFL free agency:

WIDE RECEIVERS

If you like free agency fireworks, keep an eye on this position. Conditions are favorable for multiple difference-making wideouts to change teams. 

Look no further than the top wide receiver available. 

From all accounts, Steelers WR Mike Wallace is likely to at least test the market, and it will not be surprising if he signs elsewhere. The Steelers reportedly have big-time salary-cap issues, and they signed fellow wideout Antonio Brown to a contract extension last summer. Wallace had an uneven 2012 season after sitting out the summer in a contract dispute, but he has the most upside of this UFA class, given his age (26), early-career production and rare speed.

There should be strong demand for Wallace. The same goes for Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe, a tough, physical No. 1-caliber target.The Chiefs gave him the franchise tag a season ago but wouldn’t seem likely to do the same this season. 

Packers WR Greg Jennings also looks likely to test free agency. The Packers have a strong WR corps, and Jennings turns 30 in September. Jennings has been a brilliant performer on his best, but teams must ascertain how much longer he will be a top-caliber performer. Patriots WR Wes Welker, a very good performer in the slot but a player on the wrong side of 30, has even more proving to do in the long-term value department. 

Those looking for a younger alternative in the slot might turn to the Rams’ Danny Amendola. He has flashed special playmaking ability but has struggled to healthy. 

Don’t be surprised if Dolphins WR Brian Hartline does well in free agency. He is just 26, and he comes off a 74-catch, 1,083-yard season. The combination of youth and productivity is a good combination to boast when it’s time to sign that second contract. That said, Hartline is more of a complementary target than a go-to-guy. 

Two other intriguing wideouts are the Colts’ Donnie Avery, who has very good speed; and the Browns’ Joshua Cribbs, the rare player who can get a premium for special-teams ability. 

Restricted free agency usually lacks much excitement, what with teams preferring to high-tender the very best prospects, so it’s unlikely the Giants’ Victor Cruz, the Chargers’ Danario Alexander or the Steelers’ Emmanuel Sanders will be going anywhere. That said, keep an eye on the Steelers’ tender for Sanders, considering their reported cap issues and their tendency to sometimes offer lower-than-expected one-year RFA deals. 

The other major storyline at wideout is the future of the Vikings’ Percy Harvin, who has one year left on his deal. Harvin is a rare talent, and he does not turn 25 until May. However, he has reportedly given coaches fits both in Minnesota and at the University of Florida. If he’s traded, it will be interesting to see if he garners a new deal or if he’s left to play out the final year of his rookie contract. If Harvin stays healthy, and if he can do some damage control regarding his image, he could get a monster deal at some point, considering his youth, talent and productivity. Harvin has far-and-away the most upside of the wideouts who could potentially be on the move in the offseason. 

Here is how I rank the top free-agent wideouts (restricted + unrestricted), as well as other veteran receivers who could be on the move. (All salary figures are from Rotoworld.com, an invaluable resource for such financial information. I would be remiss if I didn’t suggest you check out their site if you haven’t already.)

Here’s the list:

As the offseason begins, we ramp up our NFL free agency coverage. Here’s the second of a series of analyses of the best players available at each major position group:

RUNNING BACKS 

The perceived value of the RB position has decreased in recent years, with teams increasingly leery of handing out big deals to anyone but blue-chippers. The reasons are no secret: Running back is a brutal position to play, and the game can take a serious toll on ball-carriers. The increased emphasis on passing doesn’t help a running back’s leverage, either. 

Still, it’s a vital position for NFL teams. In 2012, 20-of-32 clubs had one running back take at least 50 percent of their rushing attempts. Save for the starting quarterback, no one will handle the ball more in a given season than the tailback, so you better have at least a serviceable one. 

In the 2013 free-agent class, five running backs look capable of being a primary ball carrier. The Dolphins’ Reggie Bush, heads my list of UFA backs on account of his playmaking ability. Bush, who received 51.6 percent of the Dolphins’ rushes a season ago, is not a 300-carry-a-season grinder, but then again, few backs are. Pair him with a bigger back, keep his legs fresh and reap the rewards. 

Some may prefer the Rams’ Steven Jackson to Bush, but Jackson has logged a lot of miles (2,802 regular-season touches in nine years) and turns 30 in July. I believe Jackson can still be a solid starter, but Bush has a little more upside. 

I’m also intrigued by the Steelers’ Rashard Mendenhall, who doesn’t turn 26 until June and enters his second full season back after suffering a torn ACL in the 2011 finale. I prefer Mendenhall to former Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw, who’s tough and productive but comes with durability concerns.

The Jets’ Shonn Greene, a physical plodder best paired with a change-of-pace back, is the last of the five starter-cailber backs available in free agency. 

A couple more veteran backs could hit the market. The Falcons’ Michael Turner is due $6.9 million this season, per Rotoworld.com salary figures. The Falcons can’t possibly pay the 31-year-old Turner that much money. The Panthers could reach a similar decision on DeAngelo Williams, who has three years left on his deal and will be 30 in April. The Broncos’ Willis McGahee is another interesting name, in my view. He will be 32 in October, and Knowshon Moreno is a younger, cheaper alternative. 

Longer shots to change teams include the Jaguars’ Maurice Jones-Drew, the Raiders’ Darren McFadden and the Bills’ Fred Jackson. In all three cases, their teams wouldn’t gain much by moving them, given their contracts. Moreover, all three teams finished in the bottom half of the league in points scored. 

What follows is my ranking of the top free-agent running backs (restricted + unrestricted). What’s more, I have listed a handful of backs who could be released or available in trade. All salary figures are from Rotoworld.com, an invaluable resource for such financial information. I would be remiss if I didn’t suggest you check out their site if you haven’t already. 

Here’s the list:

At Nevada oddsmaking firms MGM Resorts International and William Hill, the 49ers are favorites to win the first-ever New Jersey Super Bowl.

At MGM, the 49ers were 9-2 Super Bowl XLVIII favorites as of Monday, with the Seahawks, Broncos and Patriots next at 6-1. At William Hill, the Niners, Broncos and Pats were 6-1 co-faves, with the Seahawks next at 8-1. 

The fifth betting choice at both books? Green Bay, which is 10-1 at William Hill and 8-1 at MGM. 

As you can see here, the Packers opened at 7-1 at MGM, and they have floated up to their current price. Now, this may be just a blip on the radar screen, but I’m curious to see whether the Packers’ odds continue to drift further and further up: 

At 10-1 or higher, the Packers hold considerable appeal. Let’s count the ways: 

• They have a blue-chip quarterback in his prime. Yes, this is elementary stuff, but it’s true all the same. 
• The Packers are clear NFC North favorites entering 2013. 
• Of the NFC’s other teams, only the 49ers appear markedly better than Green Bay, in my view. If you want to make a case for the Giants being clearly superior to the Packers, what with two wins in calendar year 2012 vs. Green Bay, be my guest. Nonetheless, the Packers are intriguing at the price. 

Super Bowl odds are a measure of how a team is perceived by the public. Could it be that the public is a little wary of the Packers after two straight divisional-round exits? Is the public taking the Packers for granted? 

It’s far, far too early to say — and we may never know. All I know is this: if the Packers are 10-1 or better to win the Super Bowl, they are a fine, fine value. 

Let’s say this right now: the UFA market for quarterbacks is not strong, as I detailed earlier today. 

In my view, here are the top seven QBs who could test the market — and even this is a stretch, as Joe Flacco may never get that chance. 

1. Ravens QB Joe Flacco

2. Colts QB Drew Stanton

3. Dolphins QB Matt Moore

4. Bears QB Jason Campbell

5. Bills QB Tarvaris Jackson

6. Saints QB Chase Daniel

7. Chiefs QB Brady Quinn

With little depth in the UFA market, the trade market looks like a prime alternative for teams seeking veteran starters. There’s also a chance that a veteran or two could be released for financial reasons. 

What follows is an analysis of all of the potential veteran QBs who could be traded or cut in the offseason. Now, some will surely stay put, but I’ve listed everyone whom I believe has, if nothing else, a sliver of a chance of landing elsewhere. I’ve included several young, cost-effective players (i.e., Nick Foles) who shouldn’t be going anywhere but are on teams that have undergone coaching changes. You just never know in those situations. Forgive me if I’ve cast too wide a net, but I’ve spelled my rationale in the spreadsheet below. 

All salary figures are from Rotoworld.com, an invaluable resource for such financial information. I would be remiss if I didn’t suggest you check out their site if you haven’t already. 

Here’s the list: 

As the offseason begins, we ramp up our NFL free agency coverage. Here’s the first of a series of analyses of the best players available at each major position group:

QUARTERBACKS

The Super Bowl MVP award was a nice topper to the magical end of Joe Flacco’s fifth season, and Flacco surely didn’t hurt his earning potential in January and February, but make no mistake — the Ravens’ starting quarterback was always going to get paid no matter what you or I or anonymous league executive X thought about his relative eliteness or what have you.

The math is simple: There are 32 teams, but there are not 32 capable starting quarterbacks.

Flacco, 28, is one of those capable passers. The Ravens are very, very likely to retain him. Either he will receive the franchise tag or he will sign a long-term deal. The latter is preferable for the Ravens’ cap purposes, and it’s probably preferable for Flacco, too, as he likely will get tens of millions in guarantees early in the deal.

For now, we’ll count Flacco as a potential unrestricted free agent, but that could change, as the Ravens clearly want to keep him.

Once Flacco comes off the market, the pickings become very, very slim at this position. I’ve always held out hope for the Colts’ Drew Stanton; I thought he showed a little promise earlier in his career with Detroit. Just thinking out loud here, but wouldn’t Stanton make sense for the Cardinals, what with former Colts offensive coordinator Bruce Arians now Arizona’s head coach?

I prefer Stanton ever so slightly to the Dolphins’ Matt Moore, who finished the 2011 season in fine fashion before serving as Ryan Tannehill’s backup in ‘12. At his best, Moore could be a short-term starter for a club.

The Bears’ Jason Campbell is a solid backup, but his limitations were clear when pressed into service for Chicago last season. The Bills’ Tarvaris Jackson is also a fine reserve who could start a game or two in a pinch.

The last two UFA QBs who intrigue me a little are the Saints’ Chase Daniel and the Chiefs’ Brady Quinn. Daniel interests me because of his schooling in New Orleans under Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Quinn has a little starting experience, which is an asset, but I would be more interested in a player like Daniel, who may have a little more upside.

2013 FA QB rankings

1. Ravens QB Joe Flacco

2. Colts QB Drew Stanton

3. Dolphins QB Matt Moore

4. Bears QB Jason Campbell

5. Bills QB Tarvaris Jackson

6. Saints QB Chase Daniel

7. Chiefs QB Brady Quinn

Note: Ranked players are those who would be considered among the better players among the entire free-agent class.

Other UFAs: Brian Hoyer, Luke McCown, Tyler Thigpen, Josh McCown, Josh Johnson, Bruce Gradkowski, Derek Anderson, Jordan Palmer, David Carr, Charlie Batch, Matt Leinart, Byron Leftwich, Kellen Clemens, Rex Grossman.

RFAs: none

Here’s my first glance divisional predictions for 2013. Projected playoff teams are bolded. Certainly I’ll revisit these throughout the offseason, but with the Super Bowl barely in the books, here’s how I have the teams stacked: 

AFC East

1. Patriots
2. Dolphins
3. Bills
4. Jets

AFC North

1. Ravens
2. Bengals
3. Steelers
4. Browns

AFC South

1. Texans
2. Colts
3. Jaguars
4. Titans

AFC West

1. Broncos
2. Chiefs
3. Chargers
4. Raiders

Conference notes: The Patriots figure to again take some beating in the AFC East. The same goes for the Broncos in the AFC West. I wouldn’t be surprised if the North is the conference’s best division; the Bengals are talented, the Steelers have another run or two in them and the Ravens won’t fall apart even if they lose some players in free agency. In the South, the Texans get the early nod, but is their window starting to close? 

NFC East

1. Giants
2. Cowboys
3. Redskins
4. Eagles

NFC North

1. Packers
2. Lions
3. Bears
4. Vikings

NFC South

1. Panthers
2. Saints
3. Falcons
4. Buccaneers

NFC West

1. 49ers
2. Seahawks
3. Cardinals
4. Rams

Conference notes: The NFC East looks shaky to me. We’ll give the Giants the nod, but at first glance, it looks like a one-bid division. The Packers remain the class of the North, and I expect the Lions to bounce back, too. The South could be ready for a fresh face at the top if the Falcons and Saints don’t get better on defense; hence the early Carolina pick, but it’s hardly one I’m married to. In the West, the 49ers and Seahawks are best, and the Niners are the early Super Bowl favorites, in my view.